AMERICAN RIFLEMAN GUN TESTS

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joeb33050 posted this 30 November 2018

 

 

AMERICAN RIFLEMAN GUN TESTS

 

It appears that the National Rifle Association, NRA, is reporting gun test information that is not true.

 

The NRA magazine, “American Rifleman”, (AR), publishes the results of gun tests. These tests include tests for group size, of sets of five, 5-shot groups. (Group Size is the distance between centers of the two furthest-apart target holes in a group.)

The published group size measures, for each set, include: smallest group size, largest group size, and average group size.

 

Analysis

The Coefficient of Variation, CV, is the standard deviation / the average.

CV varies with the number of shots per group.

The EXPECTED CV average of group size of sets of five, 5-shot groups is .27. (“A Group Size Model&rdquo

The standard deviation = Range / d sub 2, and d sub 2 for n = 5, 5-shot groups, is 2.326.

 

(On the Extreme Individuals and the Range of Samples Taken from a Normal Population

L. H. C. Tippett

Biometrika

Vol. 17, No. 3/4 (Dec., 1925), pp. 364-387

d sub 2 = the number of standard deviations that the Range of a sample, from a normal distribution, encompasses; and varies with sample size.)

The AR largest group size / AR smallest group size = the AR Range.

The (AR Range / 2.326) / the AR average group size, = the AR CV = .18.

 

For 237 AR tests ending with the 12/2018 AR, the average AR CV is .18.

 

Sample CV values greater than the expected value are explainable; but sample average values less than the expected value are not explainable, by me or anyone to whom the question has been posed.

 

Similar analyses have been performed on data from the Cast Bullet Association 2015, 2016, 2017 Nationals, from the International Benchrest Shooters 2017 Nationals, from Larry Landerdasper and from my records. In all cases the sample average CV is greater than the expected CV.

 

My conclusion is that the NRA AR test results are not true, that at least one of the three reported results is false in a large fraction of the tests.

 

All supporting data is available on request to joeb33050@yahoo.com.

 

 

 

 

 

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Scearcy posted this 30 November 2018

If it is true for the NRA, I would expect it to be true of the other gun rags as well. Publishing is a for profit business and gun/ammo manufacturers buy a lot of advertising. No different for cars, motorcycles, or long underwear I suspect. It is a very fine line, indeed, between being a critical reader and a cynic.

Thats why we test our own and enjoy it.

Jim

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JeffinNZ posted this 30 November 2018

I have been a contributing writer for NZ Guns & Hunting for 25 years since it began and this is the primary reason I write only about my own personal experiments/experiences and will not engage in reviews of firearms or other hardware.  I believe there is an expectation of a favourable review regardless of findings.

Cheers from New Zealand

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RicinYakima posted this 01 December 2018

Yes Jeff, that is why I write for the Fouling Shot and not the gun-zines from the trade.

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Ed Harris posted this 01 December 2018

AR has not been produced to the old Walter Howe and Ashley Halsey standards for a LONG time.

Part of the reason I left was because I was unwilling to be a whore for the advertisers.

73 de KE4SKY In Home Mix We Trust From the Home of Ed's Red in "Almost Heaven" West Virginia

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Brodie posted this 01 December 2018

While I personally bemoan the passing of our beloved American Rifleman magazine Circa 1950's and 60's  where the article were interesting and not just about collecting, and the reviews were honest, I feel that the NRA is doing very important and necessary work with all their fundraising in keeping us shooting.  Remember the last election when one party ran on a platform of limiting fire arms ownership and trade.  

Like it or not fellows we are in a real fight to protect and preserve our favorite pass time.  And no magazine is going to cut off it's nose to spite it's face.  Caveat Emptor should be your motto when reading any review or any product.  Brodie

B.E.Brickey

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lotech posted this 01 December 2018

Agreed, the AMERICAN RIFLEMAN has suffered a significant deterioration in quality and types of articles over the past twenty-five years or so. It seems the editor either has no interest in correcting this or is prohibited from doing so. 

Regardless, their method of evaluating rifle accuracy remains more stringent than any other publication. Results based on  five, five-shot groups may be statistically flawed and imperfect, but it still provides at least some useful information. The original post here is about the same as one that was started several weeks ago. Perhaps the information is correct, but I'm not educated to the point I could make a qualified assessment. Unless AR can find a better method of evaluating accuracy, I see nothing wrong with they are doing.   

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joeb33050 posted this 01 December 2018

They're lying.

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lotech posted this 01 December 2018

If so, you might approach AR with the facts. 

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joeb33050 posted this 01 December 2018

Have done, twice. One "thank you" sorta automatic reply.

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Ed Harris posted this 01 December 2018

In the last 30 years the fundamental mission of NRA publications has changed from being an educational and technical information source, to simply a vehicle to sell advertising and to raise revenue. 

When I was first on the Technical staff we went to local gun shops and bought production items off the shelf to evaluate.

After the Cincinatti Massacre ad salemen and managerial staff from Petersen Publishing were brought in to increase ad revenue. AR and American Hunter became the East Coast editions of Guns & Whammo and American Carnivore, receiving carefully prepped p[re-production samples from manufacturers and writing "puff" pieces" intended to drive enough orders to support production.... 

Before leaving for Ruger I suggested tongue and cheek that they could have a scantily dressed female holding the latest advertiser's product presented in a full color centerfold. They should sell that add for the price of both front and rear covers. I can see it now the cover banner, "Rosie Rotten Crotch presents the M1 Garand, STRIPPED@!"

 At the same time they could change the name of the magazine to Guns & Gore, or Boobs and Bullets to attract a wider audience. 

73 de KE4SKY In Home Mix We Trust From the Home of Ed's Red in "Almost Heaven" West Virginia

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Ken Campbell Iowa posted this 01 December 2018

....  i was kinda hoping for an annual " Remington's Secret "   catalogue ...

... i have some more really good ones but we do have a lot of genteel ladies follow our posts here ...

ken

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John Alexander posted this 23 May 2019

I was reminded of this thread after reading the latest American Rifleman and receiving a special request in the same mail for additional money from the NRA. The AR accuracy tests of new firearms used to be the gold standard of what the public could find out about new guns.  Other gun magazines were telling us things like "the best three shot group fired was .8 inch" and they still are for that matter. The AR's policy of the average of five 5-shot groups is a reasonable compromise for a practical number of shots.  You could also compare the average ratos of the largest to the smallest group for each five group string and on average that ratio would be about 1.9 just as statistics tells us is likely.

Unfortunately the numbers that now appear don't pass the smell test. The latest issue reported on claimed firing tests on four firearms, each with three types of ammunition. This produced 12 strings of five 5-shot groups as usual.  The ratio of the largest group in each string divided by the smallest should have been fairly close to 1.9.  Instead, the average was 1.3. Nine of the 12 strings had a ratio of either 1.1 or 1.2. This is near perfect group to group consistency. It is conceivable that this could happen but it is about as likely as winning the Powerball lottery by buying one ticket.

To illustrate the unlikelihood of this happening, I compiled the results of the 5-shot group match at the 2018 CBA nationals. I computed the ratios of largest group to smallest group for the first 30 competitors on the list. Of course the match is only four 5 shot groups so the ratio of largest to smallest group should have been smaller that for five 5 shot groups.  Instead the average ratio for 27 shooters (I disregarded three with ratios over 3.0) was 1.7. As far as average ratios like 1.1 or 1.2, the predominate ratios in the AR's latest reports, NONE of the thirty shooters managed to shoot a string of four 5-shot groups with that amazing consistency.

Yes, I know all this was well proven earlier in the thread and I know that the NRA fights gun control efforts. I also know the other gun magazines lie just as much. I'll admit that as a 60 year plus member of the NRA I am a bit obsessive about this but it really pisses me off because the NRA is our organization and it is using our dues money to publish a magazine that won't do honest gun tests. That it insults our intelligence by thinking we are too stupid to tell the difference is only a minor irritation by comparison.

John

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45 2.1 posted this 23 May 2019

Maybe using jacketed bullets has benefits over using cast.....for one accuracy is noticeably better when you're dealing with varmint rifles or bench rest rifles. I've seen and experienced groups at various ranges with jacketed acting like the report. Do you have any tests with jacketed to support your assertion that they do indeed act just like cast does per your example? Inquiring minds want to know what the truth is.

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Dukem posted this 23 May 2019

I support the NRA for their lobbying efforts. I simply recycle the American Hunter magazine when it comes. They could save some of the much needed money by not sending me any magazine at all. The magazines are pretty much useless.

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RicinYakima posted this 23 May 2019

How would they pay for Wayne's $200,000 wardrobe budget?

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John Alexander posted this 23 May 2019

I wasn't going to bring that up but it is sad to think that my 64 years worth of dues plus whatever extra donations I have given to fund raising requests wouldn't even pay for one of his suits.

John  

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John Alexander posted this 23 May 2019

45 2.1 asked:

Maybe using jacketed bullets has benefits over using cast.....for one accuracy is noticeably better when you're dealing with varmint rifles or bench rest rifles. I've seen and experienced groups at various ranges with jacketed acting like the report. Do you have any tests with jacketed to support your assertion that they do indeed act just like cast does per your example? Inquiring minds want to know what the truth is.

=========

Good question and it always a breath of fresh air when inquiring minds want to know the truth.

The truth is, strange as it may seem, accuracy level has nothing to do with the amount of variation between individual group sizes in a string of groups. The "tests" I referred to in the current issue were of guns averaging over 2 moa but that doesn't matter.

I do have many tests to support my assertion, but you don't have to take my word for it. You can easily check it out yourself. Anytime you shoot a string of four or five 5 shot groups you can see this surprising variation between groups for yourself -- no matter the precision level of the rifle. I encourage everyone who is curious to give it a try with a couple of strings. You may think your rifle is an exception but don't bet serious money on it until you have shot a few strings.

When I buy a new rifle I usually shoot a batch of four 5 shot groups with at least one brand of match grade jacketed bullets to see if it is worth fooling with with cast bullets. I just looked in a couple of my notebooks and quickly found eight such strings. The level of average accuracy was about .8 moa and the ratios of the largest to the smallest group sizes were: 3.1, 1.7, 2.0, 1.9, 2.1, 2.2, 1.4, and 2.1. (None close to the 1.1 and 1.2 ratios reported for 9 of the 12 "tests" in the The Rifleman for five 5 shot groups which should have higher ratios than for four group strings) The eight strings ran higher than statistics would predict but this is a very small sample and would have probably come down if I had looked up more strings.

Anyone doubting that the current Rifleman accuracy tests are fishy can look at the similar tests in old ARs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s.  where the ratios AVERAGED about 2 for everything from stubbie 38s to match rifles. Or try to shoot a string of five 5 shot groups with a ratio of largest to smallest groups of 1.1 with any gun available.

John

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GP Idaho posted this 23 May 2019

While I believe the NRA is the best option we have as a gun lobby, sadly the leadership has been corrupted by power and money. They have associated too long with the enemy, the high power politicians of Washington. They have learned how feathering their own nest works. Lying for profit and embezzlement become second nature when you run in those circles. Things have to change in a profound way at the top of the NRA if they expect my continued financial support. Gp

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Eutectic posted this 10 July 2019

Any magazine or writer which/who accepts products for testing from manufacturers is suspect.
Any manufacturer who does not pre-test and select the product to send to "test" is being stupid.
Full page adds are frequently in the same issue as the reported "testing". This should tell you something. 
Not to preferentially bash AR, it is under the same pressure as any other magazine that accepts advertising.

I support the NRA as a member, they are the most effective national organization we have.
I ignore their weekly pleas for more money.
I give my support to local and state organizations.
I believe they are better stewards of my money and state offices are where national politicians come from.

Steve 

 

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Ed Harris posted this 10 July 2019

When I was first on NRA staff we went out in the marketplace and bought guns from local shops at retail, tested them, honestly reported the findings, then the guns were resold as used.

After the Cincinatti massacre all of that changed and most of the older tech staffers were fired and they brought in a bunch of sleasy ad-men from Petersen Publishing which gradually turned American Rifleman and American Hunter into Guns and Ammo East, getting prepped guns direct from the manufacturers and tied favorable articles to ads as a revenue stream.

The process was completed by 1984 when I left to go to Ruger.

Eutectic is correct.

 

  

73 de KE4SKY In Home Mix We Trust From the Home of Ed's Red in "Almost Heaven" West Virginia

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M3 Mitch posted this 11 July 2019

Ed, please remind me when the Cincinnati Massacre happened.  Somehow I doubt Google is going to give me the "straight dope".

Maybe because I have worked in the nuclear industry most of my life, I'm used to working with honest and intelligent people who really do want to know the truth, because, as Richard Feynman said in a different context (Space Shuttle Challenger) "Nature will not be fooled".  So I would actually be more influenced to buy a particular gat if I thought it was tested the "old way" as I think Consumer Reports still does with appliances.  And I am going to be peeved, to say the least, if I buy a gun based on dishonest testing, and the example I hold in my own hand can't live up to the hype.

I guess there are not enough of us who are honest and intelligent to make up into a viable market.  Sad but true.

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Ed Harris posted this 13 July 2019

1977.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/03/08/revolt-cincinnati-molded-nra-did-you-know-jeff-suess-schism-within-national-rifle-association-led/404628002/

 

73 de KE4SKY In Home Mix We Trust From the Home of Ed's Red in "Almost Heaven" West Virginia

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Ross Smith posted this 14 July 2019

Something might just hit the fan with the current investigations of the NRA. I know they are politically motivated, but

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RicinYakima posted this 14 July 2019

 Actually, as an outsider (annual member at that time), both sides won. The Raton Center is a beautiful place and very affordable to shoot at. The political activists got an organization to fight for the Second amendment. Because the two sides could not compromise, they ended up like the Republicans and Democrats of today.

Maybe this will bring the shooters and activists together again.

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loophole posted this 15 July 2019

How can anyone expect a word of truth out of an organization run by  crooked incompetent Wayne La Pierre and his wife--the Jim and Tammy Baker of the 2nd Amendment--paid $2 million a year plus bonuses like a 5 figure clothing allowance.  The NRA does immeasurable damage to gun rights by soaking up millions of dollars and spending it on La Pierre and his cronies and on ridiculous contracts with various blowhards like those whom it is suing.  The times is long since past for gunowners to disavow the NRA and defund it.

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docsama posted this 2 weeks ago

How effective can the NRA board be with seventy-two members?  No wonder the head shed is living high on the hog.  Fundamental changes are required to get back on track.  I’ve been a life member since 1963.  They have had their last dollar from me.

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Squid Boy posted this 2 weeks ago

Interesting thread. I am a NRA member and have been but I have also been continually disappointed that they never get anything published in the regular media, not even join the NRA ads. I don't need to see arguments for the 2nd Amendment in AR. I want to see them in Good Housekeeping and Cooking. OK, maybe not them exactly but not getting even a rebuttal to some anti-gun BS in the Times really grinds me. I have to write the letters myself. Do they lie about test results. I am fairly sure they do. Business is business these days. Squid Boy

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mashburn posted this 2 weeks ago

Hello Ken.

I hope everyone appreciates your sense of humor as much as I do. Keep it up please.

Mashburn

David Cogburn

David a. Cogburn

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